Vegas Play Recap (2019/20 season)
If you are not a subscriber, check in every week and see how we're doing.
September 30, 2019
Week 5 was another big winner. Our clients were 3-2 on CFB sides, and 3-2 on totals. We went 5-1 on extra games (1AA/FCS), and 2-1 on extra totals (although very few casinos take bets on extra totals). We also made our first NFL bet of the year, with a Vegas Play on Jacksonville +3 over Denver. Jacksonville won straight up.
September 22, 2019
Week 4 was another good one. Our Vegas Play sides were 4-1. Technically, some clients might have pushed on West Virginia and/or Oklahoma State. However, the way the lines were most of the week I think the majority of us won both plays. Even if someone pushed both, 2-1-2 is still a great week! We lost a bit on totals, though, going 2-3.
September 16, 2019
Week 3 of college football was another winner. 2-1 on Vegas Play sides (Kansas State, Air Force, and New Mexico), 3-0 on extra sides, 3-2 on totals, and 1-0 on extra totals. Solid season now. Feeling confident...
September 8, 2019
Week 2 of college football we had an excellent outing, going 3-2 on sides, and 4-0 on totals. That was on the regular rotation, and on extra games (1AA/FCS teams), we were 2-1 on sides and 2-0 on totals! That made up for for poor results in Week 1, but I never put much stock in Week 1 - so tough to figure things out.
Everything seems fine tuned and good to go. We had no plays on NFL Week 1, by the way.
August 27, 2019
We won our first bet of the season this last weekend. We had Villanova +3 or better, and they won straight up 34-14. It's always nervewracking making a first pick of the season. No one wants to start 0-1. Off to the races with a 1-0 record!
August 9, 2019
I am discontinuing the free trial this year. The service has been around long enough, and the strength of my numbers has been proven for many seasons on Todd Beck's Prediction Tracker site. Cappers get lots of value for their dollar on my site.
September 30, 2018
Check out the Prediction Tracker's summary of college football for the weekend of September 29, 2018 (click here). There were 59 systems tracked. Not all could be fit reasonably on the screen without making the print too small. Anyway, you can see my system completely dominated the week. :)
September 23, 2018
The 2017/18 season turned out pretty decent in college football, the NFL, and college basketball. I never got on track in the NBA, and I feel that game has changed a lot in recent years. I'll make a renewed effort at it this year, but I'm going to focus more on the other three sports, where I have had more consistent results over time.
So far we are 11-8 on college football sides, and 13-9 on totals through Week 4. Perfect time to try a free trial!
September 21, 2018
I'm back... I didn't update much from 2014 to 2016. I am back to full strength, and feel better than ever about prediction. During that three year lull, I was steadily doing more research, gathering more data, working kinks out of the system, etc. Now I'm really ready to go.
We have had a decent start on college football, and an excellent one on the NFL. In the NFL we have had seven best bets, and won six of them. On college best bets, we have had a solid profit on sides, but a modest loss on totals. Totals are tough to get right in the first couple games!
August 7, 2017
I didn't update much over the last year, due to personal turmoil. Things have returned to normal, and I'm feeling more energetic than I have in years. Get your free sample of the service, and stay tuned!
September 5, 2016
We had a pretty nice Week 1 in college football. We went 1-1 on 4-star plays, 2-0 on 3-star, 1-1 on 2-star, and 2-0 on 1-star. I was also 7-3 on extra plays (games involving FCS/1AA teams, and books have smaller limits on those games). I passed on totals.
Feels like a fresh start after a lot of frustration last season. It's a better time than ever to request your two-week free trial!
March 31, 2016
I had a miserable college bowl season that really knocked me flat (thus the lack of updates since then). I'm also suffering through my worst NBA season ever, which has included a ton of overtime losses and half or one-point losses. I did some new research and I think I figured out where I went wrong on the NBA. My recent picks have been showing some signs of life.
It was a profitable college basketball season, so at least there's that. It was a winning NFL season too, but I didn't make many plays. I think the tough season at least forced me into a new mindset open to change, and that gave me the initiative to really get down to some solid research. Everything seems primed now - I think my programs are through their final stage of evolution.
My numbers were good on the Superbowl. I didn't officially recommend plays, but my predictions had Denver +5 and Under 45.
November 18, 2015
Week 11 of college was our best of the season. We were 2-0 on Vegas Plays (Pitt and Middle Tennessee), 4-1 on Reno Plays, and 1-2 on Atlantic City. We also turned a small profit on totals. We are off to a strong start on basketball. Next post will give a run down of our stats in all four leagues.
October 28, 2015
Sorry for the lack of updates. Getting ready for basketball has been grueling. Our clients are doing very well on football plays. We were doing very well on my last post three weeks ago, and the last three weeks have been decent too. We are ahead on NFL and college sides. We're about break-even on college totals, and having a down year on NFL totals. The NFL totals are just a small blip, though, as I have only recommended small bets.
October 4, 2015
Another very strong weekend on college and NFL sides. Counting all plays together, we are 28-12 on college sides, and 6-1 on NFL. Unfortunately, we've lost a little on totals, but barely enough to make a dent in the strong profit on sides.
We've had strong showings on The Prediction Tracker. You can see for yourself from an independent third party that our numbers are strong. Our college predictions had the best prediction error in the world weeks 1 and 5, and for the season we are near the top in every statistical category in the NFL and college. This sort of performance has been commonplace for a few years now. (I am listed as either "Dokter Entropy", or "Dokter" on various pages on that site, if you check it out...)
October 2, 2015
Week 3 of college was a losing effort, but Week 2 of NFL (that same weekend) was another winner. Then the following weekend (Week 4 college, Week 3 NFL) was one of our best football weekends in years. On sides we went 11-1 in college, and 2-0 in the NFL. Totals were around break-even.
I know, claiming a 13-1 outing sounds outrageous. It happens once in a while. It can be pure luck, but I think in this case it was just the result of the hard work I put in this summer coming up with some new ideas.
September 13, 2015
Week 2 wasn't as great as Week 1, but still a pretty good week around here. We had our first Vegas Play of the season on Oklahoma, coming out with a lucky win. We were 1-2 on Reno Plays, and 3-2 on Atlantic City plays. We broke even on totals. Always happy to be on the positive side at this point in the season, and the amount of action will start to pick up now. In the NFL I merely suggested one under as an unoffical pick, and it was a winner. Week 2 we start to get some NFL action.
September 8, 2015
The Prediction Tracker (click here to view) shows our numbers were the sharpest out there for Week 1 of college football. The Entropy system had the lowest prediction error (ie. the most accurate) among 59 systems tracked. We were also 4-0 on our first point spread picks, and 3-1 on totals.
August 14, 2015
We ended last season at +26.701 units on all plays combined. This summer has been my most productive ever in terms of research and figuring out how to theoretically improve all my models. I had some health concerns last year that limited my plays. I should be back and stronger than ever this year.