Entropy's Vegas Plays
Customers get private directories on the web site. In your directory you will find links to all the information for the sports you purchased. Here we outline what you can expect see.
During football season, I like to bet early. I get a majority of our plays posted between Monday and Wednesday. Then I continue to watch the line movements and news on injuries up until late Friday night for college and late Saturday night for NFL. Additional picks might be waiting for your consideration on Saturday and Sunday mornings. Some people like to bet early, and some only bet on game day. This is the best of both worlds, in my opinion.
For basketball this year, I plan to release all plays in the late morning to early afternoon (Pacific time). Prediction and data updates are made nightly, so you have it all at your service, if you like to cap games at night for the next day.
Now, to see what you'll get - NFL picks for a week might look like the following:
Vegas Plays:
Denver +4.0/3.0 over New England
Indianapolis -6.0/7.0 over Cincinnati
Jacksonville +3.0 over Tennessee
Reno Plays:
Dallas -8.0 over Cleveland
Denver +4.0 over New England
The Vegas Plays are our most confident, intended for your largest wagers. Reno Plays are one tier down in confidence. I used to do a lot more tiered betting, but now it's mostly Vegas Plays and a handful of Reno plays.
For basketball, with lots of games happening daily, there is usually less time to assess value. Thus, most basketball picks are flat bets of one unit.
Where two numbers are given, the first is the best line that is or was available at some point, and the second is the least desirable line that would still be recommended, in case the line moves. If Denver moved to +2.5, in this example, they would no longer be recommended.
I don't do write-ups. Opinions on games can be found all over the Internet, and anything I write won't be any more illuminating. I encourage people to read opinions, as it is a good way to pick up on various issues that could be influencing a game. However, I am simply not in the write-up business. I make my picks, and stand by my win rates. Sometimes I do post some helpful comments or suggest statistics clients may want to consider.
Customers also get projections for margins of victory, point totals, and money lines for every game. Prediction lists come in two sections, and look like the following:
winner by loser % ML ------------------------------------------------------------------ Auburn 3.05`Mississippi State 0.573 134 Temple 6.11 Central Michigan 0.673 205 West Virginia 10.24`Marshall 0.775 344 Houston 20.41 UTEP 0.921 1165 Georgia Tech 12.08`Kansas 0.811 429 totals ------ Mississippi State 56.68 Auburn Temple 49.24 Central Michigan Marshall 43.58 West Virginia Houston 64.30 UTEP Kansas 52.11 Georgia Tech
The ML column indicate the minimum money line values that would be favorable. When a book offers a money line greater than our number, it is a recommended play. An example from above: If the Auburn money line was greater than -134, they would be a play, or if the Mississippi State money line was greater than +134, they would be the play. The % column estimates the predicted winner's chance of winning.
Another list is supplied showing the Las Vegas over/under alongside our projection, the difference between the two, the recommended play (O=over, U=under), and an * marking recommended plays. Customers have found this list extraordinarily helpful in that the difference column can be quickly scanned to spot games to keep an eye on for line changes. If a difference is quoted at 4.62 points, and you want to wager on games with differences greater than 5, then you quickly know that you are waiting for a half-point line move on that particular game. Sample list:
home road proj. Vegas diff play ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Tulane S.M.U. 52.75 48.0 4.75 * O Southern Cal Oregon State 53.26 54.0 -0.74 U Connecticut Louisville 46.87 51.5 -4.63 * U * Wake Forest Navy 49.87 54.0 -4.13 U Western Michigan Temple 51.86 51.5 0.36 O West Virginia Marshall 46.37 51.5 -5.13 * U Pittsburgh Syracuse 50.16 47.5 2.66 O
Plays marked with a second asterisk are recommended for a higher wager, such as 1.5 or 2 units.
For college and pro basketball, prediction lists are provided for the upcoming two days of games. Football is handled one week at a time, of course.
You also get lists of each team's power rating in only recent games. For basketball, the last five games are rated, and for football the last three. At a glance you can determine which teams are hot and cold. Below is an example: The first section is sorted by the over-all power ratings, while the second section is sorted by delta values. At a glance one can see which teams are the hottest and coldest.
The power column shows current power ratings, last5 gives power ratings for only the last five games played, and the delta column is the difference between the two. A positive delta indicates the team has played better in its last five games, and negative indicates worse.
NBA, 12/28/09
team w l t power last5 delta
---------------------------------------------------------
1 Atlanta 21 8 97.73 95.08 - 2.65
2 Boston 23 6 97.18 92.47 - 4.71
3 Cleveland 24 8 96.79 108.04 +11.25
4 LA Lakers 24 5 96.29 95.03 - 1.26
5 Orlando 22 8 95.42 92.04 - 3.38
6 Denver 20 11 94.43 90.86 - 3.57
7 Phoenix 19 12 94.27 93.26 - 1.01
8 San Antonio 17 11 94.26 94.35 + 0.09
9 Portland 20 12 94.21 99.50 + 5.29
10 Dallas 22 9 94.20 92.83 - 1.37
11 Utah 17 13 93.00 94.13 + 1.13
12 Houston 18 13 92.72 86.45 - 6.27
13 Oklahoma City 15 14 92.46 95.24 + 2.78
14 Miami 16 12 91.64 100.97 + 9.33
15 Milwaukee 12 16 88.55 83.83 - 4.72
16 Memphis 13 16 88.54 93.39 + 4.85
17 Charlotte 11 17 88.54 87.53 - 1.01
18 Sacramento 13 16 88.17 83.54 - 4.63
19 Toronto 15 17 87.54 95.82 + 8.28
20 New Orleans 13 15 87.12 87.61 + 0.49
21 New York 11 19 86.95 85.80 - 1.15
22 Detroit 11 19 86.86 76.78 -10.08
23 Washington 10 18 86.60 87.11 + 0.51
24 Philadelphia 7 22 85.78 84.76 - 1.02
25 LA Clippers 13 17 85.71 85.15 - 0.56
26 Golden State 8 21 85.28 82.45 - 2.83
27 Indiana 9 20 84.85 82.78 - 2.07
28 Chicago 11 17 84.47 89.67 + 5.20
29 Minnesota 7 24 81.10 86.90 + 5.80
30 New Jersey 2 28 79.34 74.62 - 4.72
team w l t power last5 delta
---------------------------------------------------------
1 Cleveland 24 8 96.79 108.04 +11.25
2 Miami 16 12 91.64 100.97 + 9.33
3 Toronto 15 17 87.54 95.82 + 8.28
4 Minnesota 7 24 81.10 86.90 + 5.80
5 Portland 20 12 94.21 99.50 + 5.29
6 Chicago 11 17 84.47 89.67 + 5.20
7 Memphis 13 16 88.54 93.39 + 4.85
8 Oklahoma City 15 14 92.46 95.24 + 2.78
9 Utah 17 13 93.00 94.13 + 1.13
10 Washington 10 18 86.60 87.11 + 0.51
11 New Orleans 13 15 87.12 87.61 + 0.49
12 San Antonio 17 11 94.26 94.35 + 0.09
13 LA Clippers 13 17 85.71 85.15 - 0.56
14 Charlotte 11 17 88.54 87.53 - 1.01
15 Phoenix 19 12 94.27 93.26 - 1.01
16 Philadelphia 7 22 85.78 84.76 - 1.02
17 New York 11 19 86.95 85.80 - 1.15
18 LA Lakers 24 5 96.29 95.03 - 1.26
19 Dallas 22 9 94.20 92.83 - 1.37
20 Indiana 9 20 84.85 82.78 - 2.07
21 Atlanta 21 8 97.73 95.08 - 2.65
22 Golden State 8 21 85.28 82.45 - 2.83
23 Orlando 22 8 95.42 92.04 - 3.38
24 Denver 20 11 94.43 90.86 - 3.57
25 Sacramento 13 16 88.17 83.54 - 4.63
26 Boston 23 6 97.18 92.47 - 4.71
27 Milwaukee 12 16 88.55 83.83 - 4.72
28 New Jersey 2 28 79.34 74.62 - 4.72
29 Houston 18 13 92.72 86.45 - 6.27
30 Detroit 11 19 86.86 76.78 -10.08
As if all that was not enough, I will remind you again of the data files displaying loads of useful historical data for each and every game. Clients are finding this data extremely interesting to peruse. If anything is going to help a bettor win, it is habitually watching lists like these. Click here to see sample game data files.
All information is presented through a neatly organized master index file. There is a lot of information to navigate, but we make it all easy to find.
How many services provide this much for such reasonable prices?! None that I know of.